The MEta's movement

Reading the Ana Release Notes and hearing stories from the Public Test Realm, I could tell that the writing was on the wall for some Heroes. McCree was obviously going to be a monster in the correct hands (see: IDDQD, Taimou, Surefour et. al.) with the changes to his effective range. Similarly, it was not hard to guess that D.Va would see a boost in Usage, given that every change she received was an objective Buff to her Hero Kit. This brings me to Zenyatta, and what seems to be a strange phenomenon: in a single week, due to a single patch, there were IMMENSE changes in Hero Usage. Zenyatta straight up murdered Mercy and stole her spot in the Meta, nearly reaching McCree’s S Tier, probably Overpowered Usage Rate. The same Zenyatta had previously been the topic of many a Reddit thread or podcast topic for accounting for 0 picks out of nearly 1000 in weeks before. Heroes like Soldier 76 and Pharah also saw similar, immense changes in their Usage but in the opposite direction, in only 7 days. How could the the Meta have shifted so quickly? 

The Meta's Movement: Unusually fast?

Along with the release of new content in the form of Ana and powerful Balance Changes, one could expect a certain amount of upheaval in Hero Usage but not so much, so fast. Outside of McCree -- who I tend to excuse due to certain icons in the scene deciding to exclusively master his kit -- it was not a crazy idea to think that Heroes like Zenyatta would rise to the highest Tiers….eventually. On the flip side, it seemed reasonable to expect a gradual reduction in Pharah and Soldier 76 Usage over time, not such a sudden free-fall. Originally, I expected all of these Meta Changes to come somewhat gradually -- and this was based at least in part to my own past Data. As you can see in my Historical Tracking Sheet above, I chronicled the Meta’s reaction to the Widowmaker and McCree nerfs, where there was at least one week of “intermediary” Meta Usage of these two Heroes before their eventual cratering. Compare that to this week’s skyrocketing of Zenyatta, McCree, and crash of Soldier 76, Mercy, and Pharah over the course of just 7 days. What happened to the intermediate step? 

The meta's movement: peeling back the curtain

In truth, the Competitive Scene already had its intermediate step: the PTR prior to Ana’s release. During this two-week PTR, Pros realized just how powerful McCree was -- during the many high level scrimmages  that nearly always featured lineups with McCree, Zenyatta, and D.Va at minimum. These same Pros realized that Disord Orb combined with McCree’s range and D.Va’s new Defense Matrix essentially invalidated Pharah’s reason to exist, causing the sharp drop in Usage Rate Pre-Patch vs. Post-Patch that we see today. Similarly, McCree’s damage output and Pharah-killing skills have always directly competed with Soldier 76’s for lineup spots, so Bromas’ favorite Pulse Rifle-based Hero also took quite a hit during PTR testing.

After two weeks of plinking people from across the Map with McCree, tossing Discord Orb on everything that moved, and generally being annoying as hell as D.Va in general under their belts, the Pros had already solidified the 7 Day Meta before Ana had even been released. Unfortunately for poor Bromas, Soldier 76, Pharah, and Mercy had to go to make room for the new kids in town: McCree, Zenyatta, and D.Va. The case of the quickly shifting Meta can now be closed: the Meta moved at the same rate -- just behind the scenes. 

Now, what does this mean for the Post 7 Day Meta? For McCree, probably not much. Most Pros consider the Fan the Hammer Buff much stronger than the damage falloff nerf, so it is still quite unlikely for Soldier 76 to recover at all. Ana's new Buff has implications for other DPS not named McCree as well, as it now seems more likely that we're on the cusp of a Tri-Support Meta, rather than the typical 2 Tank, 2 DPS, 2 Support Meta that has become the norm. 

Meta Predictions: Revisited

Last week, I attempted to predict what Heroes would end up in which Tier. This week, I’ll revisit these predictions and Analyze what I got right, and what I got wrong. Does CaptainPlanet actually understand what the hell he’s talking about? Let’s find out….

Ana: C Tier. The Pro community is completely split on the idea of Ana. The more conservative players seem to lean towards sticking with a traditional (read: Mercy + Lucio) Support setup in their lineups, while the more creative Teams have jumped on the Ana - Zenyatta bandwagon. On the other side of the gun, McCree mains maintain that McCree's buff and Ana's lack of mobility gives her a ticket straight to the dumpster, but Nanoboosted Genji mains beg to differ. 
Off to a good start! In fact, Ana reached the C Tier this week by the skin of her teeth -- reaching a usage rate of 6% to fall into the 5-20% established range. This was mainly due to just a few players on successful Teams (Nevix, for example) insisting on playing her on Maps like Dorado and Route 66. I expect Ana to skyrocket in the coming week to at least B Tier, possibly A Tier due to the increase in her firing rate. 

Bastion: F Tier. No significant changes occurred to everyone's favorite Songbird-controlled Murderbot, and no new synergies have come to the surface that could drag the poor bastard out of the F Tier. Try again next time, Bastion. 

No surprises here -- Defense Heroes are still in the gutter unfortunately. 

D.Va: B Tier. D.Va is BACK IN THE FIGHT! After many weeks of languishing in the D and F Tiers, D.Va received some very significant buffs to her Ultimate and a partial Hero Redesign to boot. Her Ultimate now costs 15% less, explodes 1 second faster, and no longer kills Hana Song in her human form. Furthermore, D.Va's Defense Matrix is now a Toggle-able ability with a 1 second cooldown between Toggles and recharge meter, allowing smart players to selectively delete single projectiles or entire Ultimates. D.Va could even reach the A Tier, but I believe unfamiliarity with the Hero will hold her back slightly. 

Whiffed just by a little bit with D.Va on my prediction -- she missed out on the B Tier by less than 4 % Usage Rate. Don’t get me wrong, D.Va is still amazing in the current Meta with her bevvy of Buffs, but the high Swap Rate between the top Tanks in the Meta kept all of them out of the B Tier for the time being. If we were to look at Pick Rate alone, all four Tanks not named Roadhog would have reached the B Tier this week as well. 

Genji: C Tier. Genji's Usage in the Post-Ana Meta will be entirely dependent on the strength of the Ana - Genji Ultimate combo, and if its Team wiping ability is consistent enough to justify including Ana in a Lineup in a Meta that's sure to be filled with her natural predator: McCree.

I could not have been more wrong with my reasoning on this prediction, although I was only one Tier off with Genji’s eventual Tier. Genji’s position in the B Tier seems to be much more Zenyatta-based than Ana-based, but if we see Genji in the S Tier solely on the back of Zenyatta-Ana comps in the coming week I would not be surprised. 

McCree: S Tier. Speaking of which, McCree. McCree received what seems to be a small change -- a reduction in his falloff damage. Unfortunately, Overwatch is home to some absolutely dirty McCree mains: I'll let iddqd's PTR McCree clips speak for themselves:

Called it! McCree will likely be staying in the S Tier too -- he’s received an objective nerf to his long range capabilities but gained much more consistency in his midrange damage output in return. This consistency in the hands of Pro-level players will prove to be quite deadly. so I don’t see everyone’s favorite cowboy going to any other Tier soon. 

Pharah: D Tier. McCree makes Pharah's life a living hell, and adding a new Sniper Hero in Ana doesn't help Pharah's situation either. Sorry Pharah, it's Mother's Meta now. 

Close, but no cigar. I underestimated players’ ability to determine that yes, Pharah cannot exist in a Discord Orb/McCree centric Meta during the PTR time period, so I missed on calling Pharah’s fall to the F Tier. 

Reaper: C Tier. McCree's usage is about to skyrocket, which will force Soldier 76 and Pharah out of their lineup slots. Reaper, on the other hand, should be relatively unaffected due to his specialist role as a close-range brawler. 

Right on the money with Reaper -- it seems like he’ll continue to be a Map-dependent brawler who does not care about the Meta around him in the slightest. 

Soldier 76: D Tier. Soldier 76 received a "minor" change similar to McCree's, but his will push his usage in the opposite direction. McCree and Soldier 76 are always locked in a battle for Top Hitscan DPS, and for now the duel was won by the Six Gun Killer.

Nailed it with Soldier 76 here. Soldier 76 and McCree fill too similar of roles in Overwatch, so their Usage Rates are always inversely related to each other. 

Tracer: D Tier. Tracer has not received any buffs that could help her escape the D Tier, and she's one flashbang + Headshot away from a McCree kill at all times. No change to her Tier can be expected. 

Like Reaper, I hit it right on the money with Tracer as well. Both of these Heroes had no reason to be affected by the Balance changes one way or the other, and so stayed stagnant.

Junkrat: F Tier. Junkrat, like many Defense-oriented Heroes, has been losing more and more ground lately to Offense-oriented Heroes who can be effective on both sides of Payload. Junkrat received no Balance Changes or new Synergies and thus seems unlikely to improve his standing.

Defense Hero = F Tier, no surprises there...

Hanzo: F Tier. Hanzo had a brief moment in the sun outside of the F Tier this week due to the limited Map Pool favoring Maps he shines on, but the update to the "Around the corner" hit detection netcode should be the nail in the coffin for this Hero. I see no hope of escape from the F Tier without a significant Balance Change.

The only surprise for Hanzo was that he got 0 Picks at all, but in a Meta as Top Heavy as the 7 Day Meta no one wanted to mess around and shoot arrows and stuff. 

Mei: F Tier. Mei will see increased usage because of a stealth nerf to Self-Healing: all Self Healing effects now count towards Ultimate Charge. Most Heroes received an increase in Ultimate Charge cost in response, but not Mei! This slight increase in usage should not be enough to help her escape the F Tier, however.

Strangely enough, Mei saw some extended Usage in one specific scenario this week: Talespin brought her out as a surprise Offensive lineup to disrupt TSM’s King’s Row Defense by walling off specific Heroes to be focused down in a 6v2 slaughter. I’m not entirely convinced this was a viable strategy, but if we see a noticeable uptick in Mei Usage you can thank Mr. Spin for the idea. 

Torbjorn: F Tier. There's no place in the Meta for Builder, Turret, or Defense Heroes  -- so why would a Hero who's all three be anything other than F Tier at the Pro level?

Hey look, another Defense Hero. *Barfs*

Widowmaker: F Tier. Teams in the new Meta already have a sniper, and his name is McCree. Or Ana. But certainly not Widowmaker. Does this mean Widow is obsolete? Only time will tell.

Time certainly told, and Widowmaker got 0 Picks just like Hanzo. Buffs to Ana certainly won’t help Widowmaker’s situation, but what can Blizzard do to help out Widowmaker without making her entirely broken?

Reinhardt: C Tier. Reinhardt was already on the decline prior to the crazy buffs D.Va received, and the return of shield-busting McCrees should hasten his freefall. Reinhardt will still be a good include on Payload Maps, but perhaps only for certain areas and only on Attack instead of for both sides of the Escort. However, I could be underestimating the synergy he shares with Ana's Nanoboost -- I'm prepared to take a loss on this one. 

Strangely nailed this one, for completely the wrong reasons. I underestimated the usage Ana would get in what is now the 7 Day Meta, but this could change in the coming weeks with her new Buff.

Roadhog: C Tier. Roadhog should see some swapping around with Reinhardt and Winston on Attack to pair with D.Va, and also has good synergy with Ana. Not enough to reach B Tier though.

Wrong! D.Va ate all of Roadhog’s Usage, although Roadhog’s justification serves well for Winston. 

Winston: C Tier. See Roadhog.

See Roadhog.

Zarya: B Tier. Zarya is built to hard-counter many of Ana's abilities, and also is a good annoyance to McCree. Combine her shield abilities with her Combo-enabling Graviton Surge and you've got a recipe for the B Tier. 

SO CLOSE! Zarya missed out on B Tier by less than 1%, so I’m calling this prediction basically correct. Zarya should also see a boost in usage with the Buff to Ana for the same reasons I gave above.

Lucio: A Tier. Whenever a significant change occurs, everyone likes to go back to their old favorites. For this reason I believe Lucio and Mercy will continue to hold down the A Tier as the most "familiar" of the four Healing Supports. 

The importance of Lucio’s Speed Boost alone is enough to guarantee his A Tier position -- at least until another Hero can provide a similar service. Ana’s Buff probably won’t eat too much into Lucio’s spot either -- we may be looking at the dawn of a new Tri-Support Meta.

Mercy: A Tier. I don't think Mercy has quite the potential to exceed 95% Usage this week, but her Usage Rate should remain easily high enough to reach the A Tier for her status as Overwatch's best Main Healer. Her Damage Boost will also be a staple of McCree-laden lineups, enabling the gunslingers to score easy picks consistently.

Swing, and a miss. Mercy was completely replaced by Zenyatta for his many Discord Orb synergies and the loss of her partner in crime, Pharah.

Symmetra: F Tier. Similarly to Junkrat, there's simply no room for a Defense-Oriented Hero in the coming Meta. Symmetra's status as a non-Healing Support also seems confusing with the release of Ana and the assumption that Zenyatta will be viable now. Symmetra...what would you say you...do here?

I stand by my pretty negative opinion of Defense Heroes in general. The current Meta is focused around fast, Rush-based pushes which care not for entrenched Defenses like Symmetra. Also, D.Va can make quick work of any and all of her Turrets.

Let's Talk Swaps - round 3

This week’s Swaps Data painted a pretty accurate picture of the overall procession of matches for the most part. Teams would often roll out with a Team composition they felt was either safe and able to respond to any attack, or a Rush-Based strategy meant to quickly overrun a Defense that would be tailor-made for attacking the first point only. You’ll notice that Winston, D.Va, and Reaper all had relatively high Swap rates both “To” and “From” -- demonstrating that these Heroes both had a high Pick Rate and worked on specific Map Areas suited to their abilities. For D.Va and Winston in particular, this makes sense given the similarities in their kits: both can easily chase down vertically-placed enemies but D.Va tends to have a bit more of an Offensive lean than Winston.

Despite these two Tanks high Swap Rates on both ends of the spectrum, it was Tracer who led the way for Swaps “To”, due to the obvious choice of using her to force last-ditch Overtime countdowns. Additionally, Genji had 10 more swaps “To” than “From” while Roadhog had roughly the same in the opposite direction. This could be a product of Teams starting with Roadhogs until they see the enemy Team’s lineup, then swapping to a more favorable Genji pick. Speaking of Rush Strats, Zarya had a high bias towards being swapped "From", as her kit fits the Rush Strat Meta perfectly. She can toss out shields on speed-boosted flankers to escort them to the back line, shield herself to establish a forward position, and bust heavy Defenses with her Ultimate. Following a successful first point push, teams would then swap off Zarya for the more mobile D.Va and Winston to keep the momentum in vertically-designed maps like King's Row and Hollywood.

Final Thoughts and Shoutouts

As always, none of this Data could exist without the help of the Competitive Overwatch Community -- so remember to check out my Competitive Overwatch Beta Twitch Directory! This Directory features all of the Twitch Streams and Social Media of as many of the people who helped make the Beta Competitive Scene great that I could find. Get out there and give these people a Follow -- without them there would be no Competitive Scene and no Overwatch Hero Meta Report. This week it was my birthday so I'd like to thank the community for giving me something to be happy about -- providing vital data to the scene :3

Until next time,

CaptainPlanet

Icarus' corner

This week, as always, I partnered with Icarus to compile the data necessary for both of our Meta Reports. If you'd prefer your Meta Reports in audio/video form, head over to his YouTube channel, or check back here around every Wednesday of the week! Icarus is on break this week, but check out his channel for great content!

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